​WEEK OF 11/12/2018

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1. South America

The European Union has extended its sanctions against crisis-hit Venezuela until November 2019 on Tuesday. The bloc had imposed an arms embargo in November 2017 and added various officials to the sanctions list throughout this year, and the extension came for what the EU said were human rights violations and undermining of democracy and the rule of law under Maduro. The EU made this extension a week after the US put sanctions on Venezuela and other “troika of tyranny” countries, which may be a move to mitigate its tensions with the US, giving recent disagreements over the Iranian sanctions.
On Thursday, a new U.N. estimate has found that the number of people who have fled Venezuela in the country’s economic collapse and political chaos since 2015 has reached 3 million — marking an exodus comparable to the ones seen in war-ravaged countries such as Syria and Afghanistan. This estimate shows that Venezuela’s economic collapse has made thousands of Venezuelans suffer. However, Western powers keep putting sanctions to add pressure on Maduro's government, which is not the best way to help Venezuela. The international community and Venezuela's neighboring countries should find other ways to help those Venezuelans who are suffering.

Brazil’s right-wing President-elect Jair Bolsonaro and incumbent President Michel Temer met on Wednesday to discuss prospects for urgent economic reforms and a potential joint foreign trip at the end of the month. At a press conference after the meeting, Temer said he invited Bolsonaro to accompany him to the G20 summit from Nov. 30 to Dec. 1 in Buenos Aires as part of the transition to the new government. The newly elected President Jair Bolsonaro as a right-wing leader has been controversial and called “Brazil’s Trump.” Bolsonaro’s victory has arisen questions of the stability of the relations between Brazil and China as Bolsonaro has criticized China for many times during his campaign. It remains unclear if Bolsonaro uses policies and strategies that are similar to Trump’s toward China.

Things to Watch:
Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis; International attempts to help Venezuela; Bolsonaro’s policies toward China.

Sources to learn more:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/european-union-extends-sanctions-venezuela-year-181106115412492.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/07/reuters-america-update-1-brazils-temer-and-bolsonaro-talk-g20-pension-reform-in-transition.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/08/million-venezuelans-have-fled-their-country-according-new-un-estimate/?utm_term=.81c44b4eefa1

2. Asia-Pacific

In ​Bangladesh the police are interrogating six people suspected of human trafficking after Bangladeshi guards separately rescued nearly 50 Rohingya refugees from boats heading for Malaysia through the Bay of Bengal.​ People are ​lured by the traffickers with promises of marriages and jobs in Malaysia, and even though many surrounding countries plan to repatriate those who fled from Myanmar, the UN warns that the process of repatriation must be voluntary and safe.
The meeting between Mike Pompeo and one of Mr. Kim’s top compatriots this Thursday to nail down a plan for the second summit between Trump and Kim has been canceled. ​And last Friday, North Korea veered toward hostility as its foreign ministry warned the country would ​return to a policy of strengthening its nuclear force​ if the Trump administration did not lift economic sanctions. The initial hope for a denuclearized Korean peninsula may prove to be futile.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has rejected an offer by the US defence chief and other top American officials to buy F-16 fighter jets, saying such an acquisition would be “utterly useless” because his country needs lighter combat aircraft to fight insurgents. Duterte has vowed to buy new military equipment to fight anti-government rebel groups, and no longer accept second-hand weapons from the United States. The Philippines under Duterte has forged closer ties with both China and Russia involving trade and defense cooperation.

Things to Watch: 
what will happen next between Trump and Kim and North Korea’s denuclearization? Will there be an end to the persecution of the Rohingya Muslims? What are some other balance of power dynamics between Southeast Asia and China?

Sources to learn more:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/bangladesh-rescues-rohingya-illegally-heading-for-malaysia/2018/11/08/a61f7d36-e37c-11e8-ba30-a7ded04d8fac_story.html?utm_term=.f1a98cc3259d https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-arms.html https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/2161136/philippine-president-duterte-scoffs-us-offer-buy-utterly

3. Europe 

A more unified Europe in military aspect is possible.The European defense coalition is launched in Paris today. The French President Emmanuel Macron calls such French-led European defense formation a “real European army”. Such idea was proposed by President Macron a year ago, but was met with skepticism by many European nation states. Such coalition would encourage these member states to raise its military spending in order to meet the goal of stronger “European army”. Nation states such as Belgium, Spain, Netherlands, UK, Estonia, and Germany have agreed on this plan and showed their commitment to it. Facing a more isolationist the United States, the proponent of such plan argues that it is essential to form a relatively independent European army. However, the supporters of such a coalition state that this European army would not affect the effectiveness of Europe-US collective security organization: NATO. The critical issue of such collective security is that “who” is going to be the central power of it and based on m latest observations France is more likely to be the leader of it since it is the French who initiates such collaboration. Moreover, encountering the growing Russian aggression and its plan on fully modernizing the ex-Soviet weapons, Europe chooses to be more unified than ever, especially its military aspect.

In addition, the German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz proposed adding 5.7 billion Euros on its national defense planned budget from 2020. US President Donald Trump has pressured Germany to increase its military spending to 2% of its GDP from the current 1.5%. However, the central-left coalition of Germany has been reluctant to such increase due to their falling polls and supports, and afraid such spending boost would scare the voters.

Trump believes that European states should merely rely on US military might while not improving its military power, making the US the loser of such free rider dilemma. Moreover, such proposal could also signify Germany’s concern and reaction toward the growing Russian aggression.

Things to Watch: 
A more unified and organized European coalition army, and future military development of European states.

Sources to learn more:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-defence/european-defense-coalition-launched-in-paris-idUSKCN1NC291 https://www.businessinsider.com/german-military-is-about-to-get-a-big-spending-boost-2018- 11

4. The Middle East

Saudi Arabia's crown prince has launched a project to build the first nuclear research reactor in Saudi Arabia, the Saudi Press Agency reported. MBS made this announcement to the world today because he wants it to be known that he is still in power and that he has the capability to pursue a nuclear program.

Washington has pledged to halt all purchases of crude oil from Iran globally eventually but for now its eight biggest oil clients — China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan, and Turkey — can continue imports without penalty. Crude exports contribute one-third of Iran’s government revenues. The exemptions allow the eight countries to import at least some oil for another 180 days, and could mean the exports start to rise after November. This group of eight buyers takes as much as three-quarters of Iran's seaborne oil exports, trade data shows.

Iran cannot buy airplanes from Boeing or Airbus due to the new U.S. sanctions. Iran's search for other suppliers was a talking point on the sidelines of Airshow China this week, where China promoted its growing aircraft industry as it looks to break into foreign markets. However, asked whether Iran had shown interest in buying Chinese airplanes, Zhao Yuerang, general manager of Comac, told Reuters: "No, we cannot sell to Iran. Iran is off the table."
Italian police discovered 270 kg (600 lb) of heroin hidden in a container that arrived aboard a ship from Iran, the biggest such haul for at least 20 years in Italy, police said.

Things to watch: 
Will Comac decide to sell planes to IranAir? When will the U.S. exemptions become invalid? Who is responsible for the heroin found in Italy?

Sources to learn more:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/bin-salman-launches-saudi-arabia-nuclear-plant-project-181105192827938.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-allows-iran-continue-selling-oil-its-8-biggest-customers-n931891 https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-is-off-the-table-for-Chinese-passenger-plane-deal-571304 https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-heroin/italian-police-make-major-heroin-haul-on-ship-from-iran-idUKKBN1ND2CP?il=0

5. Africa

On Monday, 79 students, their principal, a teacher, and a driver were kidnapped in Cameroon. Base on the video that was sent to Twitter, they were kidnapped by a group of armed men in the English-speaking Northwest Region. The government claimed that the armed men belonging to the separatist militias and they are trying to put more pressure on the government by doing so. The English-speaking region of Cameroon has always been demanding for independence by arguing that the French-speaking central government failed to give enough recognition to the English legal and education systems in the North-West and South-West. While the separatist spokesman denied their involvement. In the end, the problem was not solved, and they were condemning each other.
Coincidentally, this crisis happened just one day before the inauguration of the President Cameroon, Paul Biya. The inauguration ceremony was not affected by the kidnapping of 79 students. This is actually the seventh term of Paul Biya, and the opposition parties accused that the election was illegitimate. Presidential elections in many countries in Africa have always been a big problem so that we can only hope that the safety of hostages and the stability of whole Cameroon won’t be affected by this event in the short term at this point.
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Dramatically, the students who were kidnapped on Monday were all released and reunited with their parents on Wednesday. The motivation of the kidnappers to capture and release the students are both unknown. Nevertheless, it is always good to say the hostages come back safely. Even though their Principal is still missing and the future of Cameroon remains mysterious, at least a sudden crisis is solved in only a few days.

Things to watch: 
the condition of the still trapped principal, further action of both the government and the separatist on separatist movements

Sources to learn more:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-46095439?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5be150796c10aa067360e4ee%26Holiday%20in%20Cameroon%20for%20Biya%20inauguration%262018-11-06T08%3A56%3A21%2B00%3A00&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:aa487949-3126-4d4e-9dc3-7fd8430412fe&pinned_post_asset_id=5be150796c10aa067360e4ee&pinned_post_type=share https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46132093
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cameroon-security/armed-men-in-cameroon-kidnap-79-school-children-idUSKCN1NA1B8