1. Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan
The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, the world’s longest sea-crossing bridge, was set to open this week. According to the chief designer of the bridge, the establishment of this new bridge will change the economic pattern, social structure and transportation condition of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area dramatically. What’s more, it can be viewed as a part of the board strategy of Chinese government to simulate local development.
Meanwhile, tensions between China and the U.S. was intensified after two U.S. destroyers were sent to the Taiwan Strait. Tsai’s Administration stated that Taiwan advocated such operations which would promote regional security. Although Chinese government opposed such operations, no sustantial action can be taken to stop so-called NOP operation.
Things to watch:
Further operations of the U.S. military in this area.
Sources to learn more:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/21/world/hong-kong-zhuhai-macau-bridge-intl/index.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-us/taiwan-closely-monitored-two-us-warships-path-through-the-taiwan-strait-idUSKCN1MW1Z0
2. Europe
The UK Secretary of International Trade Liam Fox said his plan to normalize UK’s commitment to the World Trade Organization had failed. The UK now has to restart trade negotiations with the remaining WTO members. Multiple WTO members have shown “expressed reservations” toward UK’s plan to “copy and paste” EU’s commitment to the organization. UK’s commitment to WTO lies within the EU’s schedule and Brexit would change such status as the UK withdraws from the EU. This would harm many members’ interests because commodities or services could be directly exported to the UK and transfer to other EU member states freely. Such benefits might be gone after the Brexit since there is little progress regarding the new EU-UK free trade agreement.
At the same time, on the issue of academic freedom, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban decided to ban gender studies programs in universities, claiming people are either born male or female. However, Central European University's degrees are still accredited in the United States ,and the programs will continue to accept applicants. Again, Hungary, as a relatively new member of the EU, challenges EU’s liberal values in many aspects. Last month, the EU parliament decided to punish Viktor Orban’s “anti-democratic” policies. Hungary’s stance on issues such as gender, LGBTQ, immigration, and nationalism differ a lot from its EU colleagues, and such ideological division could be worse due to both sides’ hostility.
Things to Watch:
UK’s trade negotiations with EU member states, Viktor Orban’s conservative/anti-liberal policies.
Sources to learn more:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-25/brexit-talks-said-to-be-on-hold-as-may-s-team-can-t-agree https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/19/europe/hungary-bans-gender-study-at-colleges-trnd/inde x.html
3. Korean Peninsula
In this week, North Korea and South Korea agreed to remove weapons from Panmunjom, also known as the Joint Security Area(JSA), to alleviate hostility and improve the relationship between Pyongyang and Seoul. This operation was finished on Thursday, which means that there is no more weaponized sentries but only a few regular guards on both sides. Nevertheless, the landmines that have already been deployed in 38 parallel will remain there. The world — especially the US — all hold an optimistic view of this movement. However, the US still displayed concerns on several other issues. The U.S. Treasury Department is “deeply concerned” about planned financial cooperation between North and South Korea. Unlike South Korea, the US is not planning to ease the sanction until the complete denuclearization of North Korea, and the US’s attitude is not likely to alter. Obviously, the UN sanction has affect North Korea’s economy significantly. The United States sanctioned two Singapore-based firms and an individual over their alleged money laundering on North Korea's behalf on Thursday. Both of the firms are trading daily necessities include commodities and marine fuels.
Things to Watch:
North Korea and South Korea’s political and economic relations. Whether the tension on JSA will ease or not.
North Korea’s economy.
Sources to learn more:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-us-northkorea-southkorea-banks/u-s-treasury-calls-reveal-deep-concern-over-south-korea-banks-north-korea-plans-document-idUSKCN1MW19O
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45946924?intlink_from_url=
https://www.bbc.com/new s/topics/cnx753jej1xt/south-korea&link_location=live-reporting-story
4. Middle East
As the Khashoggi incident develops, the US’s attitude gets ambiguous on its
sanctions to Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration is not likely to put any severe sanctions on Saudi Arabia in order to maintain the two state’s strategic alliance. On Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani commented that “I don’t think without U.S. support that a country would dare to commit such a crime”, claiming that the US is behind the incident. This can be seen as a way to discredit the US, and it also puts more pressure on the Saudi authorities. Iran and Saudi Arabia are rivals in the region, and the US has been putting sanctions on Iran’s oil exportation. Tehran hopes this incident could distract US attention and bring up international pressure to the US and Saudi Arabia in order to ease the sanctions from the US.
Moreover, India will not buy any Iranian oil in November. India is joining other Asian buyers such as South Korea and Japan that have already halted imports from Iran before American restrictions take effect in early November. In recent years, India has been the second largest customer of Iranian oil. India tries to comply with the US demands because India would like to maintain a positive relationship with the Trump Administration and prevent the US from getting closer to Pakistan, India’s political foe.
As for Israel, China’s Vice President Wang Qishan arrived in Israel on Monday and immediately went to the Western Wall, a Jewish holy site in Jerusalem. At the Wall, Wang told his Israeli hosts that he has read much about Jewish history and was happy to “see and touch history near the stones of the ancient wall.” Prime Minister Netanyahu later greeted Wang by saying that his visit to Israel “is a tremendous compliment to Israel and a reflection of the growing ties between China and Israel.” China and Israel are increasing bilateral ties. China is investing in numerous infrastructure projects throughout Israel in an attempt to boost trade and influence in the region. Israel and China are also expected to work on technological projects together.
Things to watch:
US sanctions to Saudi Arabia; Follow-up development of the Khashoggi incident; International reactions to the Iranian sanctions; China-Israel development.
Sources to learn more:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-treasury-secretary-mnuchin-heads-to-saudi-arabia-to-solidify-anti-iran-alliance-1540122174
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-slams-saudis-over-dissident-killing-suggests-u-s-ties-were-key-1540396595 https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/From-the-Great-Wall-to-the-Western-Wall-Chinese-VP-visits-Kotel-570000 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/india-is-said-to-cut-imports-of-iranian-oil-to-zero-in-november-jmhy95z8
