Background Info:
Less than two weeks before COP27, the UN Environment Program released a report claiming there is no “credible path” to limit global warming to the projected 1.5°C under Paris Agreement. Average global temperatures are currently set to increase between 2.1°C to 2.9°C, given countries’ current industrial policies and pledges. This past summer, the U.S. and China suffered from extreme climate change-related disasters, including record-breaking droughts, floods, and wildfires. How are civil society actors driving innovation and policy changes to chart a path towards a more sustainable future? How is the US-China competition impacting alternative energy industries and each countries’ commitment to meet their net-zero goals?
在 COP27 召开前不到两周，联合国环境规划署发布了一份报告称, 没有“可靠的途径”将全球变暖限制在《巴黎气候协议》预计的 1.5°C 之内。鉴于各国当前的工业化政策和承诺，目前来看全球平均气温将上升 2.1°C 至 2.9°C。同样的，今年夏天美国和中国都遭受了与气候变化相关的极端灾害，包括干旱、洪水和森林野火等。民间社会参与者将如何推动创新和政策变革以规划通往可持续未来的道路？中美竞争将会如何影响替代能源行业以及各国实现净零排放目标的承诺？
Speaker:
Mr. Mitchell F. Stanley
Less than two weeks before COP27, the UN Environment Program released a report claiming there is no “credible path” to limit global warming to the projected 1.5°C under Paris Agreement. Average global temperatures are currently set to increase between 2.1°C to 2.9°C, given countries’ current industrial policies and pledges. This past summer, the U.S. and China suffered from extreme climate change-related disasters, including record-breaking droughts, floods, and wildfires. How are civil society actors driving innovation and policy changes to chart a path towards a more sustainable future? How is the US-China competition impacting alternative energy industries and each countries’ commitment to meet their net-zero goals?
在 COP27 召开前不到两周，联合国环境规划署发布了一份报告称, 没有“可靠的途径”将全球变暖限制在《巴黎气候协议》预计的 1.5°C 之内。鉴于各国当前的工业化政策和承诺，目前来看全球平均气温将上升 2.1°C 至 2.9°C。同样的，今年夏天美国和中国都遭受了与气候变化相关的极端灾害，包括干旱、洪水和森林野火等。民间社会参与者将如何推动创新和政策变革以规划通往可持续未来的道路？中美竞争将会如何影响替代能源行业以及各国实现净零排放目标的承诺？
Speaker:
Mr. Mitchell F. Stanley
Mr. Mitchell F. Stanley is the founder and Chairman of the National Center for Sustainable Development (NCSD), a national not-for-profit corporation. He also served as Board Member at the Energy and Environmental Management Institute of George Washington University in Washington DC., and Chief Expert at the Energy Professional Investment Committee of Asia Investment Association.
In his business career he serves as Board Member and President of Sinoaccess Group. Prior to the establishment of NCSD, he was Chairman of the Board of WebBank, an FDIC insured financial institution located in Salt Lake City, Utah. His career in government service began in 1977 and he served many senior positions at the U.S. Department of Commerce, The State Department and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation. Mr. Stanley served as President Reagan’s assistant in the White House West Wing for three years. In 1984, he joined the International Trade Administration of the Department of Commerce and organized the First Presidential Trade Mission to Asia.
Upon his return from Asia, he served as Chief of Staff and Cabinet Secretary for Secretary of Commerce Mr. Malcolm Baldrige. His interest in new and innovative small business lending products and economic development programs began during his tenure with the federal government as Deputy Administrator for the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Finance, Investment and Procurement programs under president George H.W. Bush. Mr. Stanley completed his government career with the highest rank in the Senior Executive Service and received several Presidential Rank Awards. He graduated in 1977 from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service in Washington, D.C.
In his business career he serves as Board Member and President of Sinoaccess Group. Prior to the establishment of NCSD, he was Chairman of the Board of WebBank, an FDIC insured financial institution located in Salt Lake City, Utah. His career in government service began in 1977 and he served many senior positions at the U.S. Department of Commerce, The State Department and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation. Mr. Stanley served as President Reagan’s assistant in the White House West Wing for three years. In 1984, he joined the International Trade Administration of the Department of Commerce and organized the First Presidential Trade Mission to Asia.
Upon his return from Asia, he served as Chief of Staff and Cabinet Secretary for Secretary of Commerce Mr. Malcolm Baldrige. His interest in new and innovative small business lending products and economic development programs began during his tenure with the federal government as Deputy Administrator for the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Finance, Investment and Procurement programs under president George H.W. Bush. Mr. Stanley completed his government career with the highest rank in the Senior Executive Service and received several Presidential Rank Awards. He graduated in 1977 from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service in Washington, D.C.
Mitchell Stanley先生开场致辞:
从乔治城大学外交学院毕业后，我成为了一名白宫工作人员。当时是一九七零年代早期，在美国政界和学界中国并不是一个重要议题，所以没有人真正的了解或研究中国，许多美国人甚至都没听说过中国这个国家。一九七几年的中国很穷，也在经历内部结构的重大调整，许多人估计中国需要一百年才能进入现代化国家的行列。但我记得当时跟我儿子说，中国在世界上将会扮演愈发重要的角色。她潜力无限的生产业、制造业将对世界发展产生重要影响。我有一张在上海的照片，可以看出当时那里并没有什么高楼，但几十年后的今天那里高楼林立，基础设施十分发达与普及。我相信如此巨大的变化与发展速度超过任何人的预估，而且中国正是通过自己的政策改革与努力创造了如此巨大的财富。
长话短说，我非常尊敬和喜欢中国人民。我的爷爷在1944-47年间曾派驻云南昆明，他也很喜欢中国。之后前副总统老布什第一次访问并派驻中国，自此开启了中美政府首脑互访并建立外交关系的时代。我记得听到的一句话是，中国人民将成为全世界的希望。我当时还很疑惑为什么，看看现在：例如，全球气候变化在当今是一个大议题，但过去无人知晓。中美气候变化合作将在未来几年内变得愈发重要。
Q&A:
问：您认为中美关系未来的走向会是什么样的？
答：简单来说，我认为中美关系会变得更好。撇去政治对立不谈，中美之间的人文交流当前形势较好，并且未来将会进一步加深。我的感觉是当前中美两国人民相互之间的印象依然很好，我之前在中国的所有经历让我相信中国人民对美国的印象不像日本人民那么消极（历史根源），只是政治上的细微差异在一些媒体的渲染下营造了一种消极的氛围，但在我一个美国人看来中国人民都非常好。不久前众议院议长佩洛西访台虽然加剧了中美政治领域的摩擦，但并没有很大程度影响两国在气候危机处理方面现有的合作；未来一个愈发显著的趋势是，你将会看到两国政府在一个阶层上合作，而两国的非政府组织（NGO）和人民将在另一阶层上合作，而且将会有效得多。至于战争必然更加不可能。
问：您如何看待中美两国在可再生能源市场的竞争？例如，中国正在为其电动汽车（EV）和其他类似产品的生产寻求资源（例如在非洲开采用于电动汽车电池的钴），而美国则通过调整其非洲政策竭力阻止中国这样的作为。这种竞争将如何影响美中双边关系和美国未来的对华政策走向？如果可再生能源领域的竞争成为一种“军备竞赛（arms race）”，有什么可能的方法来阻止这种不健康的竞争?
答：美国国会总是无理由反对中国。只要中国稍有动作，国会就会反击。但他们这样做是因为华盛顿的政客们只是想获得一些联邦预算和税款，并将其带回自己的选区以获得选民的支持。这些都是美国政客们的把戏，等到六周后，国会将不再关心这些问题。
问：近年来，美国正在采取措施培养和吸引更多的STEM人才。中国和美国都公开投入更多的人才和研发资源以进行系统性的竞争。然而，我们两国都面临着将这些研究转化为商业上可行的产品的问题。中国有很多政府驱动的举措，但资金在任何地方都是一个问题。正如一些华盛顿官员所说，预算就是政策，政策就是预算。您认为我们能如何更好地探索资本对市场的力量，并让资本成为将这些创新从实验室推向市场的推动力？
答：我认为基于中美两国的金融体系，当前没有能将科技有效商业化的途径。在美国，金融服务体系基于私募股权，因此没有有效手段实施技术商业化。美国政府也只在科技商业化之前资助技术发展，并让私营部门为商业化买单，但私营部门没有足够的技术知识来完善这一过程。同时，中国政府也在资助许多创新产品的研发与投入使用，但其中一些并无法立刻见效。
问：您对夹杂在可持续愿景中的党派政治有什么看法？
答：环境保护和可持续发展是美国的传统价值。即使中期选举后，参众两院角逐愈发激烈，此类基本方针也不会产生过大的变动。中美两国在可持续发展上的合作潜力深远，但双方价值及世界观的不同使得这种潜力不得不被埋没。
问：您觉得中国该如何抛弃煤炭，转型新能源？
答：跟美国一样，中国最终会完成能源转型，但来自社会面的阻力仍然深重。中美两国都在煤炭开采的道路上行进了两百年有余，光煤炭公司及其附属产业下的员工就极大地带动了国内社会就业。我观察到这些传统能源企业当下正在开展清洁转型，这种原封不动的内部改革会很好地缓解此阶段的产业阵痛
问：在今年十一月举行的 COP27 上，拜登-哈里斯政府发布了基于自然的气候变化解决方案路线图。该路线图是扩大美国应对气候危机潜力的战略纲要，同时政府释放了超过 250 亿美元的资金投入基础设施建设和应对气候变化。据您了解，该方案发挥了什么作用，以及它对美国的环境可持续性目标意义何在？
答：我不确定拜登总统试图从该法案中得到什么。这可能与宾夕法尼亚州工会的诉求有关。总统的意图是好的，但这些计划却总是含糊不清，既没有事实依据也没有清晰的路线图，而且很难预测可能的后果：来自产煤州的亿万富翁参议员可以轻易地破坏该法案。