THE OUTLOOK FOR US-CHINA RELATIONS

主持：杨子墨 Zimo Yang
嘉宾：Dr. Robert Sutter
 
Zimo: Hello everyone, welcome to our panel on the outlook for US- China Relations. My name is Zimo Yang, a member of the China Development Student Think Tank. we are a student-run organization at the George Washington University. We aim to provide a pure academic platform on college campus for students and scholars to share knowledge on the subject of International Affairs and to promote discussions on the topics of Sino-U.S. relations, Asian-Pacific economic-political reform and world sustainable development.
 
Zimo:大家好，欢迎大家来到中美关系展望论坛。我叫杨子墨，我是中国发展北美学生智库的成员。北美学生智库是乔治华盛顿大学的一个学生组织。我们旨在在大学校园内提供一个纯粹的学术平台，让学生和学者分享有关国际事务的知识，推动中美关系、亚太经济政治改革和世界可持续发展等议题的讨论。
 
Today, I’m delighted to welcome professor Robert Sutter to our channel. Professor Sutter was a Ph.D. graduate from Harvard University and he is now a Professor of Practice of International Affairs at the Elliott School of George Washington University. Professor Sutter has published 22 books, over 300 articles and several hundred government reports dealing with contemporary East Asian and Pacific countries and their relations with the United States.
 
Professor Sutter’s government career saw service as senior specialist and director of the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division of the Congressional Research Service. He was also the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and the Pacific at the US Government’s National Intelligence Council. He also served as the China division director at the Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research and professional staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
 
Zimo: 今天，我们荣幸的邀请到罗伯特·萨特教授来到我们的频道。Robert Sutter教授毕业于美国哈佛大学，获得历史与东亚研究博士学位。曾在乔治敦大学、乔治华盛顿大学、约翰霍普金斯大学从事教学30余年。现任职于乔治华盛顿大学艾略特国际事务学院。Sutter教授是美国著名的亚洲问题研究专家，撰写了22本书、300多篇文章和几百份政府报告。在长达33年的政府工作生涯中，Sutter教授致力于亚太事务与美国外交政策，曾先后在美国国会图书馆国会研究部、国务院和参议院外交关系委员会等部门工作，多年担任国会图书馆国会研究部与国防处高级专家、主管，还曾担任美国国务院情报与研究局中国部主管。
 
Zimo: Good Afternoon Professor. Thank you so much for joining us!
 
Zimo: 教授下午好，谢谢您的到来！
 
1. Zimo: Professor Sutter, you are joining us today at a time of extremely turbulent in the US-China Relationship. Could you please share with us how you would characterize US-China Relations at this point? What are the core challenges and risks that you see emanating from U.S.-China tensions?
 
Zimo: Sutter教授，今天我们交谈之际正是美中关系极度动荡之时。请问您如何定义目前的美中关系？您认为美中紧张局势带来的核心挑战和风险是什么？
 
Sutter: The situation that we face today has been caused by the United States. It's been a three-year-effort to turn US policy toward China in a negative direction. This has been influenced by Chinese behavior, which the US now finds they can no longer tolerate. So they've taken a very strong negative turn against China and Chinese practices. There are many practices that the Chinese are doing that America sees as fundamentally trying to undermine the US. So this is a very serious situation. The support for this policy now has grown a lot over the last three years, and we are now at the high point of this growth in this election that we are in. The future looks like it's going to be very negative toward as far as the US approach to China. So we have a major impasse here. So I characterize this situation now as one of struggle. We are in a position where both sides' view of the other as a systematic rival. And this systematic rivalry it's across the board. In this one area or another area, it's systematic. US's approach to China has been this way. It has broad support in US Congress—it's not just the executive branch doing this. It isn't just the small group; it has enormous support in the US now. So we are in a period of struggle. 
 
Sutter: 我们今天面临的中美关系局势是由美国促成的。美国近三年一直在打造强烈的，消极的对华政策和态度。美国的态度对转变也受近些年中国行为的影响。在美国看来，中国正在采取的一系列从根本上试图削弱美国的行为。这种情况非常严峻。在过去的三年里，越来越多的人支持美国采取消极的对华战略，尤其是疫情和大选期间，美国对华的负面态度达到了顶峰。我认为这种负面态度在大选结束后还要持续一段时间。现在中美都将对方看作系统性对手，这种敌对与竞争在各方面都会体现。支持美国对中国的消极态度不仅仅是行政部门或其他的小组织，美国的国会也对这种态度表现了大力支持。所以中美两国现在处于绝对的斗争状态。
 
2.Zimo:What does US-China clash mean for the lived experience, for your average American person or your average Chinese person? Is there any ways to Bridge the divide at this particular time?
 
Zimo: 您认为中美冲突对两国的老百姓意味着什么呢？现阶段我们有可能弥合分歧吗？
 
Sutter: What it means for ordinary people is that it means they are going to be a part of this struggle one way or the other. I don’t think either side is going to war so ordinary people won’t face “that kind of struggle”. We will have clashing interests across the board. So it won’t have huge impacts on American society to some degree. I don’t want to exaggerate this. It will lead to slower growth in the US and China. This kind of struggle is carried out by the government people. But it will have an impact on people to people exchanges between the two countries. Exchanges will be a lot restricted, but those are not necessarily ordinary people. I mean ordinary people in the US don’t go to China in general, and probably vice versa. It’s more exceptional people that go to the US, they are more wealthy and they can do this. So as far as ordinary people, I’m not sure that it will have an enormous impact. 
 
Sutter: 对中美两国的普通人来说，中美冲突意味着他们无论如何都将成为这场斗争的一部分。但是不用恐慌，我不认为中美任何一方准备开战。我不想夸大事实，尽管中美将在各方面产生利益冲突，两国经济增长也必然有所放缓，但是这种冲突不会对美国社会产生过于严峻的影响。中美冲突可能对两国的文化交流产生影响。人们的旅行、学术交流等将受到很大限制，不过受此影响的大多不是“普通老百姓”。因为在中国，能来美国旅行或学习的人经济都比较宽裕，从美国去中国的人也是，他们算是比较特殊的一群人。所以对中美普通老百姓来说，我觉得他们的生活不会有太大改变。
 
This situation is very difficult to change. The Chinese people think their government does the right thing in foreign affairs; it's widespread in China. So they don't understand these complaints from the US, and the explanations they will receive are about something different that is causing this in the US. It's the fault of individuals in the US or some other factors, but it's never the responsibility or China's fault. And this is a remarkable attitude. I'm not sure what country in the world has this attitude to this degree, but people in China do. They think their government is always right in foreign affairs. So in the US, the people are wildly supporting the hard policy toward China now. It took them a long time, and they didn't agree with it first. They didn't understand it because before we were engaging in China. China was seen as our partner and as our friend. And that has changed completely in public opinion now. The residual wariness of the public is that I don't want to be in trouble with China. That's not all, so I don't think that gives us any basis to make sort of a breakthrough. I think we are going to be struggling and testing each other and this is going on for some time until something happens that will cause us to change. One side takes advantage of the other, and other things can happen. But at this point, the government in China is convinced that it's moving toward the China Dream. The US government is reacting to China's behavior in a way since that behavior won't change, that will remain negative. Even though Mr. Trump may not be re-elected, I think that negativity still won't change.
 
我认为中美冲突的僵局在短期内难以改变。中国人普遍相信政府在外交事务中总是正确的。所以他们不理解来自美国的抱怨。中国人总认为美国对华的敌对态度是美国的一些个体或其他因素造成的，而不想想是不是中国政府做错了。我不认为除了中国，世界上任何国家的国民有这种态度。美国人花了很长时间才开始逐渐支持对华的敌对态度。以前他们认为中国是我们的伙伴和盟友，但是现在公众舆论已经完全改变了。美国大众现在很警惕，他们不想惹到中国。我认为这种公众态度不足以给我们改善中美关系的基础。直到我们迎来一个突破口，中美在未来一段时间内势必继续相互敌对和竞争。中国政府将继续大力向实现“中国梦”迈进，但是美国必然也会持续做出消极反应来对抗中国的举动。不论特朗普是否连任，我认为美国的消极态度短期内不会改变。
 
3. Zimo: Under the new presidential election, would Biden's China policies be more lenient compared to Trump's? If elected, how do you think Biden would handle tensions with China, such as human rights issues and trade deals left behind by the Trump administration? 
 
Zimo: 现在正值美国大选，请问您认为拜登的对华政策是否会比特朗普更为宽松？如果拜登成功当选，您认为他会如何处理与中国的紧张关系，比如人权问题和特朗普政府留下的贸易协议？
 
Sutter: It’s a very good question. Mr. Biden was not far shunned China during the campaign in 2019. But the public opinion shifted in that period, particularly with the coronavirus’s impact in the US. And with that shift, public opinion became quite negative toward China. I was waiting for public opinion to support the hard policies toward China, but now they have. Mr. Biden and other Democrats have to move in that direction. So things became much tougher toward China. Mr. Trumps Campaign has used Biden’s past remarks on China to attack him for being too soft on China. So we have to be tough on China, and he is tough on China. So, will that continue? I think he obviously has a more nuanced position on China than Mr. Trump. In another way, that nuance is where he wants to cooperate with China on some issues. He says this directly. So it’s not all negative with Mr. Biden. But on issues like human rights, he’s been very outspoken on human rights issues with China. He hasn’t done much, and he hasn’t advocated doing much, but he’s been very critical of China on those issues. On trade issues, the Democrats are a little more flexible than Mr. Trump, but they also have been very critical of China’s trade practices. So I’m not sure how they are going to move on those issues. But moving in areas of cooperation, the democrats value climate change. Climate change is the type of issue that you need China’s cooperation. For that reason and others, Mr. Biden may be a lot more flexible when dealing with China, not wanting to alienate the Chinese government because he needs them to carry on climate change and other issues. So that’s not something that comes up in the hardline policies that are coming out of the Trump administration these days.
 
 
Sutter: 这是一个很好的问题。拜登在2019年的竞选中并没有回避中国问题。但美国公众的对华态度在疫情期间发生了极大转变。目前美国大众对中国的态度变得相当消极。因此，拜登于他的团队需要跟进舆论的导向而改变对话态度。特朗普团队对中国态度非常强硬，并且他也时常攻击拜登对华立场软弱。
 
拜登在中国问题上的立场显然比特朗普更加微妙。拜登曾直言他希望在一些方面与中国积极合作。但是拜登也在某些方面对中国大为不满。比如他对中国的人权问题非常直言不讳。虽然他没有付出很多实际行动或出台相应政策来切实维护人权，但是他提出了很多批判。在贸易问题上，民主党虽然比特朗普及其幕僚更灵活一些，但他们也不满意中国的贸易行为，所以我不确定他们会如何处理这些问题。但在拜登政府的领导下中美仍有合作的可能。比如民主党非常重视气候变化，而这也是一个必须与中国合作才能改善的问题。
 
4. Zimo: As we all know, the president has much power when it comes to foreign policy. How do you think Biden's Taiwan policies will differ from Trump's?
 
Zimo: 众所周知，总统在外交政策上有很大的权力。请问您认为拜登的台湾政策与特朗普的有什么不同？
 
Sutter: It’s a very good question because the Taiwan-US Relations has been advanced remarkably over the last 2 to 3 years. It's done mainly in small steps, nothing tremendously out of the ordinary. However, these steps have all been ways of deepening the American relationship with Taiwan on social security, economics, high technology, human rights, and the coronavirus itself. So all these areas of cooperation among the others, have been quite a remarkable change. So the question is will this continue if Mr. Biden comes into office. This is a very good question because Biden comes with a record in the Obama government that is very strict in interpreting the one china policy. Mr. Obama was very strictly enforcing that and Taiwan was not an issue with significance in the Obama government. So Mr. Biden was a part of that, and his people were the same people who worked for Obama. So I would assume that influence would have some effect. What they actually will do with Taiwan is very uncertain at this time, but I think they will be inclined not to continue the advances that have been taking place in the Trump government in dealing with Taiwan. Beijing has been very vocal and sensitive about issues with Taiwan. As we all know, anybody studying China knows how sensitive Beijing is about Taiwan. So the question for American policymakers is, "do you want more trouble with China". I think Mr. Biden probably don't want more trouble with China. He already has plenty, and he has plenty of other things to do. So he may not want to advance the relationship with Taiwan. Keep in mind that supporting Taiwan in an active way has much strong support from the Trump government and people there and has strong support in the congress, both democrats and republicans. So it's not going to be easy. If Mr. Biden does this, the critics will say, what are you getting from China? What are you getting in return? Because that's not something that would just be done and then just do it. I think that wouldn't work very well under the political atmosphere in the US.
 
Sutter: 这是一个很好的问题！在过去的两到三年，台美关系发生了显著的变化。这些变化虽然是体现在细微末节，但这些小事都是为美台在社会保障、经济、高科技、人权、疫情防控等方面的关系进步的铺垫。这些各领域之间的合作极大的促进了台美关系。那么如果拜登上台，这种情况还会继续吗？拜登在辅佐奥巴马市时期，曾非常严格地践行“一个中国”原则。虽然奥巴马并不十分重视台湾问题，但是他和他的执政团队对此立场非常严格。因为拜登曾是奥巴马团队的一员，我相信他日后的对台政策必会受过往经历的影响。我不确定拜登及其团队日后对台的具体措施，但我认为他们不会大力巩固特朗普政府在台美关系上的进展。
 
北京在与台湾的问题上一直非常有发言权和洞察力。任何研究中国的人都知道北京对台湾问题有多敏感。因此，美国决策者需要考虑清楚他们是否想为台湾问题而惹上麻烦。我认为拜登先生可能不想趟这趟浑水，他已经有很多其他事情要费心了。但是你要明白，特朗普政府，国会两党和美国民众其实都大力支持美国的对台立场。公众与两党间这样大面积的意见统一是很罕见的一件事。如果拜登真的宣示对台湾问题睁一只眼闭一只眼，美国的批判者会质疑拜登能否从他的对华立场获利。中国会回馈给美国什么吗？台湾问题不能一蹴而就，采取亲北京立场在美国目前的政治氛围下是一件极不讨好的事。
 
 
5. Zimo: What role does media play in this US-China Clash? Do you think both countries' media is doing a good job objectively informing people or misleading people with biased reports?
 
Zimo: 媒体在这场美中冲突中扮演了什么角色？请问您认为两国媒体是提供关于中美争端的客观的信息，还是用带有偏见的报道误导大众呢？

Sutter: In the US, media is independent of the government, and so they often are critical of the government. As the negative turn took place in the US-China policy toward China in the last 2 or 3 years, the media at first was very skeptical of this move. In 2018 there was much criticism of this approach: the trade war and other controversial topics. In 2019, the media saw the wisdom and the need for this negative turn. They were more convinced that "yes, the US needs to do this." And then what they've seen in Chinese behavior has reinforced that thinking. So I think the media today basically sees that America needs a tougher approach to China. There is this struggle going on, and we need to do something about it. So I think there's a mainstream media support now.
In China, the media is directed by the party-state, so on the American side, I think the media is informing people about the issues and the developments. I think US media is pretty objective if you look at it from an American perspective. But China doesn't get very good treatment. China's approach is viewed very critically, and I think it's the type of thing where, from my perspective at least, is justified. But I think someone in China would see it as unfair. So on the Chinese side, the media isn't designed to criticize the government. That's not what it's about. It's about educating the people in the way that the party-state feels is best. And I think Chinese media has done a very good job of that. So people in China all understand this issue in a way that supports the Chinese party state's position. So people think the Chinese party-state is perfectly right in all of this! So my basic point is this reinforces the gaps between the US and China's understanding of this issue. I just don't see how we can have some easing of this systematic rivalry if the Chinese side thinks they have not made any mistakes. And yet I think they will continue to think that, and the Chinese media foster that. So there we are! I think the media has done a good job in so far as what they wanted to do. 
 
I mean, I understand why this happens. The US is attacking China, and Chinese media is responding to its attacks. As I said, the US initiated this big struggle, but they say the Chinese have been carrying out practices that undermine the US for years. It's an outburst because of what the Chinese would do. 
 
Sutter: 在美国，媒体是独立于政府的，因此媒体可以批评或评价政府。从近两三年来美对华政策出现了负面转向时，美国媒体大多持有怀疑的态度。2018年，美国政府在贸易战和其他争端上的行为招致了很多媒体的批判。但是2019年开始，美国媒体逐渐认识到了政府对华政策转变的智慧和必要性，并且中国的行为为美国媒体印证了这种必然。所以我认为现在美国媒体基本上都认为美国需要对中国采取更强硬的态度。中美的斗争还在继续，但是现在美国政府基本获得了主流媒体的支持。
 
但是在中国，情况就很不一样了。中国媒体是由党领导的。与此相比，我认为美国媒体在通报问题和事态发展上是比价客观的。虽然美媒经常批判性的看待中国的中国的做法，中国的一些人可能会认为这种批判是不公平的，但至少在我看来是合理的。在中国，媒体的目的并不是评判政府，而是用党感觉最好的方式来教育人民。我认为中国媒体在这方面做得很好，因为中国人基本都是很理解和支持党的立场的，有些人甚至认为党在一切事务上是完全正确的。我认为，如果中国民众不尝试反思或批判中国在一些事情上的立场，中美间的系统性竞争是不会有所缓和的。但是我理解为什么很多中国人觉得美媒对中国存有偏见。两国间的争端是由美国对中国的攻击开始的，中国媒体只是在回应来自美国的攻击的攻击。我在前面也提到过，是美国挑起的中美争端。但这也是因为中国多年来一直在损害美国利益。美国为了维护利益只有反击中国。
 
6.Zimo: Totally. Just to connect to your point on the role of media, as an international student living and studying in both countries, everyday the first thing I do is wake up and read the news. And sometimes that can make me feel really depressed because I feel confused and sad to being caught between this US-China clash. I feel appreciative of cultures and values in both societies, but I think the general political atmosphere creates suspicion and alienation. So professor, in your opinion, what can us future generations do to succeed where presidents and diplomats have failed and bridge the gap between the two superpowers? 
​
谢谢教授，我理解您的观点。回到您刚才提到的中美媒体的话题，我作为一个在中美两国生活和学习的国际学生，我每天起床第一件事就是看看中美媒体的当日新闻。看到中美冲突日渐激烈，我经常感到沮丧和迷茫。虽然我自己认为两国的文化和价值观各有千秋并且值得彼此相互学习借鉴，但是现在大环境的政治氛围却造成两国民众间的相互怀疑和疏离。在您看来，中美两国的年轻人怎么做才能疏解隔阂，缓解两个超级大国之间的纷争呢？
 
Sutter: Thank you, but I’m afraid that the students and others are the “small potatoes” in this situation. They don’t have much impact. It’s hard to be idealistic at a time of struggle. Both sides at this time are trying to defend their interests, and when they do that, you start talking in idealistic terms. I think it doesn’t work very well. It’s gonna take a while. The circumstances will have to change in some way. It will make one side or the other recognize that it does not fit their interest to continue this struggle. But for now, I think that’s where we are, and I think people like yourself and others are caught in these different opinions. The United States is a big pluralistic place, so I think people from China can be fine in doing what they are doing, but I think the current situation can make people uncomfortable. As for going to China, I’m sure some people would still want to go. But for exchanges such as academic exchanges and other exchanges, they will be restricted in many ways for all sorts of reasons. Tourism, studies, businesses will probably continue, it’s not a complete shutdown, but it will be awkward for people on both sides.
 
Sutter: 谢谢你的问题。但恐怕要让你失望了。两国年轻人在当下中美争端的影响力其实微乎其微。在斗争阶段，中美双方都想努力维护自己的利益，所以理想主义路线行不太痛。我想中美仍需要一段时间，直到有一方认识到延续这场斗争会不再符合他们的利益，情况才会有所转机。但是现在你我仍都会被困在这种敌对的处境中。美国是一个很多元的国家，所以我认为如果中国人仍可以继续来到美国学习或者交流，或者美国民众去到中国，我们会增加对彼此的相互理解，才会有一些关系缓和的可能。虽然现在旅行、学术交换、和贸易仍在继续，中美并未完全封锁对方，但各种交流会受到很多方面的限制，双方民众的处境都很困难和尴尬。
 
Zimo：Thank you so much professor, that’s all my questions for today. I think all the audience who will watch this in the future will join me right now to thank you for your wonderful contributions.
 
Zimo：我的采访到此结束，再次感谢您的到来和您对这个栏目的无私奉献。